Political Chaos in Maine: A Dumpster Fire for Democrats
All eyes are on Maine this week. Political operatives in Trumpworld tell Inner Loop they hope embattled Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner will stay in the race as long as possible—the state’s electoral chaos can only help Republicans, they claim. Platner, a US Marine veteran, overcame a string of controversies to easily win the Democratic primary last month. He is supposed to face incumbent Republican Susan Collins in the general election in one of the nation’s most closely watched races in November, but a litany of Democratic officials are now calling for him to drop out.
Platner’s Multiplying Controversies
Sexual Assault Allegation
On Monday, a woman in Maine accused Platner of sexual assault and claimed that he had once forced her to have sex over her objections. Platner’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment, though it previously denied the allegation in a statement to Politico.
Prior Accusations
Platner had previously been accused of an unspecified misconduct, had covered up an unspecified incident, and was linked to multiple offensive statements. Over the past 24 hours, Democrats from various officials to party leaders have called for him to step out of the race.
Republican Strategy: Let the Fire Burn
Trumpworld operatives say their hope—unsurprisingly—is that Platner stays in the race, given his increasingly toxic political brand, his growing horde of political enemies in his own party, and the knock-on effects on his fundraising operation. Basically, it’s a dumpster fire, and Republicans are all but making s’mores. “Platner should stay in and fight the liberal lobbyist establishment!” one strategist jokingly told Inner Loop. Like others interviewed for this story, they spoke candidly on the condition of anonymity.
Funding Woes for Democrats
Funding is also going to be a problem, operatives noted with glee. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has announced that it will not bankroll Platner’s campaign should he stay in the race. The operatives are thrilled by this: As a result, Platner would have to rely on small-dollar donors. Despite his fervent fan base, these donations would almost certainly not cover the tens of millions of dollars that both sides are expecting to have to pour into TV ads closer to the election. The Boston-area media market is among the top 10 most expensive in the country, and Mainers do watch TV.
Democratic Dilemma: Replace or Ride It Out
Democrats have until July 13 for Platner to drop out, and a July 27 deadline for a special election to replace Platner’s name on the ballot. Democratic operatives in the state tell Inner Loop this could happen the weekend of July 25, but Trumpworld doesn’t think the alternative candidates would pose a major challenge.
Potential Replacements
Janet Mills, the governor of Maine who dropped out of the Democratic Senate primary, is seen as one option. But Mills has a similar profile to Collins, who the operatives still think would edge out a victory, especially given her performance bucking Joe Biden in 2020. Another option is Troy Jackson, a former Maine state senator. But another longtime GOP strategist was skeptical whether voters would look past the baggage accompanying any Democratic candidate following the Platner saga.
Outlook: Collins Still Favored, But Race Could Be Tight
“At the end of the day, Democrats have to run a perfect race to beat Collins, which they have not done. She’s still the least offensive candidate of the Senate Republican conference, and so the strongest candidate we could have in the race,” one longtime GOP strategist says. Still, Trumpworld and the Republicans’ Senate campaign arm expect a bruising fight in the Maine Senate race that could cost them hundreds of millions of dollars. And while they believe Collins can win, it could end up being tight. Get the graham crackers.